HomeSportsAaron Judge has 60 home runs, but he can’t quite score on Barry Bonds’ MLB record of 73… right?
Aaron Judge has 60 home runs, but he can’t quite score on Barry Bonds’ MLB record of 73… right?
September 21, 2022
With Yankees slugger Aaron Judge having 60 home runs, it seems quite likely that he will set the one-season homer record in the American League in the coming days. He is only one away from Roger Maris’ 61 and one more from the sole holding of the record. Then all predictions and projections and hand-wringing can stop. He will have done it. That will be that.
Maybe, just maybe, there’s something else. Do we dare to dream? Dare we?!?!?
The Yankees have 15 games left in the season. Barry Bonds’ single-season home run record is 73. Aaron Judge has 60 home runs.
The odds here are incredible slim, but, well, you know the line. After all, Judge has better than one in a million odds of making a run and catching Bonds.
Judge has 11 multi-home games this season. Two of them have been there since September 13. Here are some of the most pooled home runs for him this season:
From April 22 to May 3, he hit eight home runs in 10 games.
Extending that to May 17, Judge homered 13 times in 21 games.
From July 14-30, he hit 12 home runs in 14 games.
From Aug 22 – Sept. 7, he hit nine in 14 games.
If he has another run like that in him, things are going to get really serious. Another 12 in 14 games would bring him to 72 with the last game of the season to go. Wouldn’t that be something?
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In fact, Judge hit 27 home runs in 54 games in the second half, which is mathematically one in two games. If he keeps that pace and continues to play every day, he would end up with 67 or 68.
The Yankees have eight more home games and seven road games on the schedule. Judge even has 30 home runs, both at home and on the road, but it might interest fans to know that the Yankees’ two road series come in homer-friendly margins. They play three in Toronto (which ranks third in HR out of 30 home baseball parks this season) and four in Texas (which ranks fourth in homerun park factor).
For now, 60 is pretty damn cool. Seeing 61 and then 62 will be great. But I can’t shake the dream that Judge has a chance at 73 and/or 74. The chances are slim, but they’re not nil.