The year kicked off with a debate over the US bailout plan, which would increase household income by $1,400 — $5,600 for a family of four — through a third round of direct economic impact payments. Now that the year is over, the big question is whether there will be a fourth payment round in 2022, even if the checks are not that big.
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GOBankingRates asked the experts, and the answer is that it depends on who you are, where you live, what you do and the political headwinds that stand in your way.
Some new parents will get $1,400 in 2022
Parents who have a child in 2021 may receive a $1,400 refund if they file their tax returns in 2022. Most people have already received their American Rescue Plan payments in full, according to Newsweek, but those who haven’t can claim their Economic Impact Payment as the Recovery Rebate Credit.
“Provided they file their tax returns first, parents of children born in 2021 will qualify for the stimulus check early next year,” said Scott McKinney, director of marketing at Debt Bombshell. “As with previous stimulus checks, they should still meet income requirements, meaning they don’t have to earn more than $75,000 a year.”
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Some states have taken matters into their own hands
Depending on where you live, you may be eligible for stimulus money in one form or another by 2022, regardless of what the federal government does — and that’s bad news for people in non-stimulative states hoping for a fourth federal package.
“Some states are forming their own stimulus money, making it even more unlikely that the federal government will introduce more stimulus,” said Anthony Martin, CEO and founder of Choice Mutual.
Indeed, many states, including California, Georgia, Connecticut, Florida, New York and Tennessee, have made additional stimulus payments. Some of those states may continue those programs into the new year, but they’re not the same everywhere. Some took the form of near-universal controls, others were specific to certain professions such as teachers or first responders, while others were reserved for students or administered through an extension of programs such as SNAP.
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Besides that, don’t set your hopes up
There is widespread consensus that the political will that would be needed to push through a fourth stimulus package simply does not exist.
“Unless conditions deteriorate dramatically, it is unlikely that more direct stimulus checks will be sent next year,” said Carter Seuthe, CEO of Credit Summit Payday Loan Consolidation. “The current administration has shown little interest in passing such measures through executive order, and Congress is dragging its feet on approving major infrastructure spending.”
Only a disaster like March 2020 can elicit the kind of political consensus needed to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on ongoing pandemic relief.
“Right now, I’d say the likelihood of another round of stimulus checks is pretty slim,” said Riley Adams, licensed CPA, senior financial analyst for Google and editor-in-chief of Compare Forex Brokers. “For that to happen, the data would have to show a rapid spike well above consensus expectations for Omicron cases. This should result in large on-site orders in most, if not all, states. As a result, it would be difficult are to coordinate and act on the need for another round of stimulus checks at the national level, when so many states would choose not to follow a shelter in place order, preferring to remain open to a potential downturn in the economy. “
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A fourth round of checks can do more harm than good
It has also not escaped policy makers’ attention that the highest inflation in 40 years came immediately after the latest round of audits – and more disposable income could turn the heat up even more.
“Injecting more federal stimulus into the economy could fuel inflation even further,” Adams said. “With people having more income available, consumer demand could increase and exacerbate an already tense supply chain.”
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Can Americans Expect Stimulus Checks in 2022? Experts weigh in