COVID-19 cases drop 46% by March 12: 3 forecasts to know
COVID-19 cases drop 46% by March 12: 3 forecasts to know

COVID-19 cases drop 46% by March 12: 3 forecasts to know

The U.S. will continue to see steep declines in COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalizations until mid-March, according to forecasts from the CDC and Rochester, Minn.-Based Mayo Clinic.

Three forecasts to know:

Cases: The nation’s average daily COVID-19 cases are expected to drop 46 percent over the next two weeks, according to the forecast modeling from the Mayo Clinic. This figure was 21.1 cases per. 100,000 people per. February 26, down from 34.6 pr. 100,000 on February 19th. Mayo Clinic’s forecast indicates that this rate will fall to 11.4 per. 100,000 by March 12th.

Admissions: Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are expected to fall nationwide over the next four weeks, with 400 to 6,600 new admissions likely to be reported on March 18, according to the CDC ensemble Forecast from 14 modeling groups. The projection, released on February 21, has dropped from the 900 to 11,600 new footage expected on March 11.

The seven days admission average for 16.-22. February was 6,060, down 29.9 percent from the previous week’s average.

Deaths: Dead: US COVID-19 deaths will drop over the next month, according to the CDC ensemble Forecast from 24 modeling groups. The forecast predicts 5,400 to 12,800 deaths, likely to be reported in the week ending March 19, which will bring the nation’s total COVID-19 death toll to a range of 963,000 to 983,000 deaths. Similar to hospital admissions, the projection marks a drop from the 6,300 to 13,200 new deaths expected in the week ending March 12.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they can not predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied upon “to make decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends,” the agency said.

Note: The Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to predict cases that automatically update as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty range for forecast values ​​with lower and upper limits, which are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to predict hot spots, click here. Beckers drew the forecast values ​​on 28 February at 8:40 CST.

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