More than three-quarters of adults in Virginia are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19, but after nearly two months of decline, the number of new cases rose in the past week statewide and Northern Virginia.
Now that vaccines are available for children ages 5-12, about 8%, or 58,000 statewide, have received at least one dose, according to updated data from the Virginia Department of Health. Overall, more than 71% of all Virginians have now received at least one dose of a vaccine.
However, the virus continues to spread, as it does in many other states, and the latest data from the health department shows that average daily new cases have increased by 6% in the past week and by 15% in Northern Virginia. Statewide, the current average is 1,327.9 new cases per day — which is still 40% in the past month and 14.1% below the level on the same date in 2020, before a vaccine was available.
In Northern Virginia, the seven-day case mean stands at 265.9, 35.3% less than the same date last year and well below the Delta variant peak of 498.9 cases in mid-September.
Forecasts from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute last week warned that there is a 30% chance that cases could surpass the rise in the Delta variant this winter. Statewide, that peaked at nearly 3,700 cases per day in mid-September.
Meanwhile, the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association reported that the number of hospitalizations for treatment of COVID-19 fell by another 10.6% in the past week, to 825 patients as of Friday. Hospital admissions are down 62% since the mid-September Delta variant peak of 2,211 patients, and are now 37.2% below the same date last year. However, hospital admissions tend to lag behind changes in the number of cases.
The state reported 196 new COVID-related deaths this week, the lowest level in two months, as the number of deaths from the Delta wave continues to decline slowly. However, deaths are a lagging indicator as it often takes several weeks to report and verify.
Of the reported deaths this week, nine were in Northern Virginia: seven in the city of Fairfax, three in Falls Church, two each in Alexandria, Arlington County and Prince William County and one each in Loudoun County and Manassas Park. The number of deaths in Fairfax County was reduced by nine, as some were apparently corrected to indicate that the deceased actually lived in the towns of Fairfax or Falls Church, rather than the county. Cases also rose sharply in the two cities, pointing to additional adjustments as the numbers in Fairfax County increased less than in recent weeks.
Northern Virginia data by city (November 12, 2021)
|Venue||Cases||hospital admissions||Deaths||New cases this week||New cases last week|
|OTHER TERRITORY JURISDICTIONS|
|Province/City||Cases||hospital admissions||Deaths||New cases this week||New cases last week|
There is currently only one outbreak in Northern Virginia, where there were more than 20 identifiable outbreaks just a few weeks ago. The only outbreaks that are publicly reported are those in certain settings, such as nursing homes, schools, and daycare centers. An outbreak is defined as “ongoing” until 14 days have passed with no new positive cases reported. The only outbreak still reported is the one at Bennett Elementary School in Prince William, which was scheduled to close for a week in early October. However, no new cases have been reported.
The health department’s dashboard tracking the number of breakthrough infections shows that between Jan. 17 and Nov. 6, 12,851 infections were reported in fully vaccinated people in Northern Virginia, resulting in 55 deaths. Statewide, 53,733 such infections had been reported, a small percentage of the nearly 500,000 total cases reported during that time. The health department says the data shows that unvaccinated people are 4.8 times more likely to develop COVID-19 than fully vaccinated individuals and 4.5 times more likely to die from COVID-19.
The health department’s vaccination dashboard shows that the average number of doses administered per day has risen again this week to about 37,000 per day as vaccines were administered to 5- to 11-year-olds. That is at a level not seen since May. The number of vaccinations was 86,000 a day at the end of March, but had fallen to about 12,000 a day by mid-summer.
As of Friday, more than 12 million doses of vaccine had been administered to Virginians, and third doses had been administered to nearly 838,000 Virginia residents.
The average positivity rate for COVID-19 diagnostic testing, both statewide and Northern Virginia, remains stable overall. All health districts in Northern Virginia now have rates of 5% or less, which experts say generally indicates the spread of the virus is under control, and the rate has fallen to 5.3% statewide.
LEAVEST COVID–19 DATA
New cases/deaths (seven days ending Friday, November 12)
Northern Virginia: 1,861 new cases (vs. 1,616 last week); 9 net new deaths (less than 17 last week)
Statewide: 9,295 new cases (up from 8,771 last week); 196 new deaths (less than 218 last week)
Statewide testing: 128,921 PCR diagnostic test results (vs. 114,811 last week)
Northern Virginia: 225,138 cases, 2,584 deaths
Statewide: 942,837 cases, 14,321 deaths
Statewide testing: 10.17 million PCR diagnostic tests (14.22 million when antibody and antigen tests are included)
Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) cases: 107 (of which 14 in Fairfax, 11 in Prince William, two in Loudoun and Alexandria and one in Arlington). Two new cases were reported across the state this week.
*Provided by Virginia Department of Health. The health department’s COVID-19 data is updated every morning (Monday through Friday) before 10 a.m. and includes reports from local health authorities before 5 p.m. the previous day.
Statewide hospital data (as of Friday, Nov. 12):
Hospital admissions: 825 (less than 923 on November 5)
Peak hospitalizations: 3,209 reached January 13
Patients in ICU: 208 (less than 237 on November 5)
Patients discharged: 72,544 (457 this week)
*Provided by Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association
For updated national and international COVID-19 data, visit the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus dashboard.
Editor’s Note: InsideNoVa provides regular weekly COVID-19 updates. For daily reports, visit the Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard.