U.S. COVID-19 deaths could remain stable until the end of February, hitting up to 978,000 total deaths, according to the ensemble forecasts CDC published February 7th.
The forecast – based on 27 different models from different academic institutions – projects 5,800 to 21,700 new deaths, likely to be reported in the week ending March 5th. This would bring the country’s total COVID-19 death toll to a range of 942,000 to 978,000 deaths.
The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied upon “to make decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends,” the agency said.
Two additional forecasts to know:
1. Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are expected to fall in all 50 states and Washington, DC over the next four weeks, with 1,000 to 11,800 new admissions likely to be reported on March 4, according to the CDC ensemble Forecast from 13 modeling groups.
For reference, the seven days admission average for 2.-8. February was 12,099, down 25.4 percent from the previous week’s average.
2. The nation’s daily COVID-19 cases are expected to fall 51 percent over the next two weeks, according to the forecast modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. Pr. On 11 February, the country’s average daily COVID-19 cases were 61.4 per 100,000 people. Mayo Clinic’s modeling predicts that this rate will drop to 29.9 per. 100,000 by February 25th.
Note: The Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to predict cases that automatically update as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty range for forecast values with lower and upper limits, which are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to predict hot spots, click here. Beckers drew the forecast values on 14 February at. 8:45 CST.