COVID-19 hospital admissions in Colorado could hit 500 in June, projects report
If current COVID-19 trends continue, 500 or more people could be hospitalized with the virus in Colorado in mid-June, according to a new report from the state’s modeling team released Friday.
That new modeling report acknowledged that there is a high degree of uncertainty about what might happen, as hospital admissions so far have not been taken as quickly in Colorado as they did after the BA.2.12.1 variant arrived in some northeastern states. That Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that BA.2.12.1 accounts for about one-third of infections in the region, including Colorado, and is gaining ground on its cousin BA.2.
The new state-wide COVID-19 model comes as Denver public health officials on Friday warned that the growing number of infections in the city has shifted it from low-risk to CDC indicators at Community level to medium risk.
The Denver Department of Public Health and Environment urged people at higher risk for serious illness to take precautions because of the transition from green to yellow – or from low risk to medium risk – on the CDC’s dashboard. Boulder and Mineral counties are also yellow, while the rest of Colorado is green.
Counties move into yellow if they had at least 200 new cases per. 100,000 people during the last week, or at least 10 COVID-19 hospital admissions per. 100,000 people. Denver had 209 cases per year. 100,000 inhabitants.
“Since the beginning of April, the number of COVID-19 cases has been slow but steadily increasing,” the Denver Department of Health said in a statement. “While the current rise is not expected to be nearly as large as the omicron rise earlier this year, it is a good opportunity to remind our community how to stay safe, protected and prepared for COVID-19.”
The new model report’s estimate of 500 admissions in Colorado assumes that BA.2.12.1 is not significantly better at getting around the immune system than previous versions of omicron and does not cause more serious illness. Some early data suggest that infection with another version of omicron may not provide strong protection against BA.2.12.1, which means that even people who had COVID-19 a few months ago could get it again, but it is not certain.
If BA.2.12.1 is more severe or more elusive, COVID-19 admissions could peak closer to 800. As of Tuesday, the state reported 116 admissions.
“This may put some pressure on health systems, but not close to the level experienced during previous increases. This is because Colorado continues to experience high levels of protection against the most severe outcomes due to immunity to vaccination and previous infection,” he said. a statement from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.
Cases could peak around 8,000 to 9,000 a day. It’s not as bad as the previous wave, where more than 20,000 cases were reported on the busiest day, but it would have been an unprecedented level before January.
“While there is still uncertainty about the behavior of omicron subvariants, this latest modeling report gives us several possible results over the coming months,” said state epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy in a press release. “We are also monitoring trends in several states on the East Coast, where BA.2.12.1 arrived before we discovered it in Colorado, as many of our recent COVID-19 trends have followed closely behind these states in recent months.”
The modeling team estimated that somewhere between one in 108 and one in 149 Coloradans is currently infected. That estimate also holds more uncertainty than usual as fewer people are tested.
The State Department of Health urged everyone to make sure they are up to date on their vaccinations; be tested if they have symptoms and isolate until they get their results; and seek treatment if they test positive. Several treatments are approved for people who have risk factors for severe COVID-19, including weakened immune system, diabetes and obesity.