Covid-19 hotspots offer a sign of what lies ahead – Community News
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Covid-19 hotspots offer a sign of what lies ahead

The contagious delta strain is driving more Covid-19 hospitalizations in the mountain west and disruptive outbreaks in the north, a worrying sign of what’s ahead in the US this winter

While trends are improving in Florida, Texas and other southern states that have experienced the worst of the summer surge, it’s clear the delta isn’t done with the United States yet. Covid-19 moves north and west in winter as people move in, close their windows and breathe in still air.

“We’re going to see a lot of outbreaks in unvaccinated people that will result in serious illness, and it’s going to be tragic,” said Dr. Donald Milton of the University of Maryland School of Public Health.

In recent days, a university in Vermont has suspended social gatherings after a spike in cases related to Halloween parties. Boston officials have closed an elementary school to contain an outbreak. Hospitals in New Mexico and Colorado are overcrowded.

In Michigan, the three-county Detroit area is once again becoming a transmission hotspot, with one hospital system reporting nearly 400 Covid-19 patients. Mask wearing in Michigan has declined to about 25% of people, according to a combination of studies followed by an influential modeling group at the University of Washington.

“Concerns about Covid in general have all but disappeared, which is unfortunate,” said Dr. Jennifer Morse, medical director of health departments in 20 central and northern Michigan counties. “I feel weird going into a store masked. I’m a minority. It’s very different. It’s just a very unusual atmosphere right now.”

New Mexico is running out of intensive care beds, despite the state’s above-average vaccination coverage. Waning immunity may play a role. People who have been vaccinated early and have not yet received booster shots may increase the number of infections, even if they still have some protection against the most serious effects of the virus.

“Delta and waning immunity — the combination of the two has set us back,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics at the University of Washington. “This virus will stay with us for a long time.”

The delta variant dominates infections in the US, accounting for over 99% of analyzed samples.

No state has achieved a high enough vaccination rate, even in combination with infection-induced immunity, to prevent the kind of outbreaks that are happening now, Mokdad said.

Deviating from national recommendations, Colorado Governor Jared Polis signed an executive order on Thursday granting any resident 18 years of age or older access to a COVID-19 booster shot, another step to prevent hospitals and health professionals from being overwhelmed by the increase in the state of delta infections.

Vaccination advances continue, but nearly 60 million Americans ages 12 and older remain unvaccinated. That’s an improvement since July, when 100 million were unvaccinated, said White House Covid-19 coordinator Jeff Ziens.

First shots average about 300,000 a day, and the effort to vaccinate children ages 5 to 11 is off to a good start, Zients said at a briefing Wednesday.

Virginia Tech’s Linsey Marr, a leading researcher into the airborne spread of the coronavirus, predicted the spread of the virus northward on Sept. 15 in a Twitter post. The virus spreads in the air and can accumulate in enclosed spaces with poor ventilation. Colder weather means more people are breathing the same air indoors, Marr said.

Imagine everyone you spend time with is a smoker and you want to inhale as little of their smoke as possible, she said.

“The closer you are to a smoker, the more exposure you have to that smoke,” Marr said. “And if you’re in a poorly ventilated area, the smoke builds up over time.”

Marr said she and her vaccinated family will use rapid tests before meeting for Christmas to check for infection.

“It’s hard to know what’s going to come with this virus,” Marr said. “We thought we knew, but Delta really surprised us. We thought the vaccine would help end this, but things are still dragging on. It’s hard to know what’s going to happen.”

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