COVID-19 is the ebb and flow of San Diego County
COVID-19 is the ebb and flow of San Diego County

COVID-19 is the ebb and flow of San Diego County

San Diego’s latest coronavirus figures show a pandemic rolling out at a rate of 500 to 600 new cases a day, sometimes rising nearly to 1,000.

It is an activity level that shows that the virus is still spreading, although existing levels of vaccine-created and natural immunity seem to prevent the kind of hockey stick curve from forming in the week-by-week trend that everyone has learned to keep a close eye on since the beginning of 2020.

The state’s latest composite discretion of the virus’ effective transmission rate is 1.16 in San Diego, slightly higher than the state average of 1.12. The number uses statistical analysis of recent cases to calculate how fast coronavirus is spreading. Numbers greater than 1 mean that each case generates more than one additional case, indicating that the pandemic is growing.

A total of 907 new cases were reported on Wednesday, the most recent day data are available. That is slightly higher than the 837 new cases reported on May 4, seven days earlier. Over the past week, the lowest daily total reported was 516 Sunday.

These figures, which experts have explained in recent months, are increasingly incomplete because an increasing percentage of coronavirus testing is now performed at home using over-the-counter tests with results that are generally not reported to public health departments.

The number of confirmed and suspected COVID-19-related hospitalizations may be a more accurate real-time indicator of local coronavirus exposure because hospitals keep a close eye on who fills their beds and what bothers them. The number of local hospital admissions, largely flat through most of April, rose slightly in early May, peaking at 121 on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays after being on a teenage cruise for weeks.

Overall, however, the impact on hospitals has been small, with current figures 12 times lower than they were at the peak of winter’s Omicron rise, suggesting that currently circulating coronavirus variants, while being able to generate hundreds of additional cases a day so far have not shown an ability to crater critical health resources.

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