Here we are. The idea that the Russian Federation should invade its neighbor seemed like a dream not so long ago, but Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has once again thrown the chessboard off the legendary geopolitical table.
Sir. Putin’s miscalculation may have cost the Russian state and its people a price they are unwilling and unable to pay. Analysts have assumed that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s loyalty to Putin could save the Russian economy, but that assumption is flawed when China’s clear and unambiguous goals are taken into account to ensure a global order that is shaped and secure. Chinese regime.
China’s foreign ministry has already signaled its willingness to be a constructive partner, if not the dominant mediator in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This makes perfect strategic sense, as both countries are key partners in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, an all-encompassing infrastructure plan that can be assumed to be an autocratic response to the US Marshall Plan.
This unprovoked war has inflicted the world invisibly since the early 20th century, but the fallout can advance the global power of America’s greatest long-term ideological and geopolitical adversary.
The new Eurasian land bridge can be described as China’s most publicly successful BRI project in physically connecting Asia with Europe to facilitate cross-border trade.
China seeks to continue this fruitful pursuit by maintaining stability in Eurasia, allowing for a free flow of goods from the mainland to the west. China’s main priority through this crisis is to ensure that its economic initiatives sustain progress, and as a result, it can take a major financial and diplomatic effort in the region to ensure that its interests are maintained.
China is already considering the large allocation of capital to Russia’s state-owned companies, including Gazprom and Rosneft; and such scenarios have already been published in Western media. Mediation of the conflict will allow China to protect its interests and export capacity to Europe, while giving the country another self-proclaimed political victory on the international stage.
Chinese investment in the Russian economy seems to be the only logical solution to Russia’s current financial dilemma. This will ultimately lead to a “cutting out” of Russia’s spheres of influence and control over its domestic and political agenda. Investment in the oil and natural gas sectors is likely to be conditioned by China’s control over corporate decision – making, or even facilitated by loans with exorbitant interest rates similar to China’s projects in Africa.
Ultimately, China will own Russia’s nature reserves and leave the country to become a vassal state, just as Mr Putin imagined Ukraine to be. China will further exploit the vacuum of influence in Central Asia to assert its dominance.
China-Russia relations with Central Asia have long been controversial, and this geopolitical shift will strengthen China’s BRI initiatives in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc. al. Putin had long believed that Central Asia remained in Russia’s sphere of influence because of its former subjugation to the Soviet Union. These events will open China’s entry into the region and ensure its dominance.
China can also benefit from Russia’s dominance in the Arctic region. Should Russia become heavily dependent on Chinese funding to support its regime, China is likely to have a stronger hand to push for its membership in the Arctic Council and finally surpass its observer status. This will allow Beijing to have a greater influence on Arctic initiatives and allow it to formulate policy in line with its interests in shipping routes and scientific projects, which will benefit its space and military programs.
China can use its game book to intervene in the South China Sea against the Arctic, and that should be of concern to the wider international community. In short, Russia’s decline may have accelerated China’s long – term advances in the international sphere.
So how can the United States strengthen its status and secure its place in the world? First, the country must solve its energy dependency problems. In the short term, America could import a significant amount of oil from Latin America through Venezuela and even Canada to alleviate immediate concerns about rising prices.
However distasteful it may be, we have geographically nearby neighbors who can provide a quick patch to the current problem. More importantly, the administration must ensure the opening of reserves to include the Keystone Pipeline in order to revive domestic production and export capacity. It is common sense that energy dependency should be a priority in Washington when the world is currently afraid of a lack of production.
Rising production will also leave Russia with few handles left to terrorize the rest of the world. Secondary sanctions against China’s transactions with Russia’s energy sector would also stem China’s capitalization of Russian investment.
China also uses the US dollar for the majority of its international transactions, and its exposure to the US remains high. Therefore, securing the dominance of the dollar globally is crucial to the success of the United States and the West as a whole.
The United States must encourage allies, partners, and even fringe associates to use the dollar during normal financial activity and promote multilateral initiatives such as the Millennium Challenge Corporation and other dollar-dominated institutions to offer alternatives to China’s BRI projects.
Leaders should also emphasize the positive impact on growth that the dollar and the liberal international order are facilitating for the globe, while signaling the potential negative impact a Yuan-dominated system may have on global trade and free market access. China can benefit greatly from Russia’s terrible and tragic decisions in the short term, but the West can still control the future if it chooses.
• M. Roberts is a national security analyst who focuses primarily on East Asian and Eurasian affairs for the U.S. government.