How long will Sharif last in Pakistan?
PESHAWAR – Shehbaz Sharif is sending positive signals to the United States, China and India as he addresses lawmakers after winning a majority in parliament to become Pakistan’s 23rd.rd prime minister. But questions are already swirling around how long his newly formed government is likely to last.
Defining his foreign policy goals, Sharif said his new government would work with the United States for the common goals of peace, security and development. He also stressed the importance of good ties to China and criticized the previous government for weakening bilateral ties. “This friendship is lasting and my government will make progress with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),” he added.
Analysts say Sharif will have to go the extra mile to improve relations with Washington, which hit a new low under former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who publicly stated that the United States was behind his fall by collaborating with opposition parties, some of which were his former coalition partners.
Khan has insinuated that the United States wanted him out of power because he refused to give the United States access to Pakistani military bases.
The relationship has also been strained due to allegations that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency played a role in the Afghanistan Taliban’s lightning takeover of Kabul in August last year, ending dramatically the US’s two-decade-long war in the country.
“As for the relationship with the United States, what happened last month was a temporary deviation, an episode in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States of [tail] the end of the previous regime’s term of office, which should not have a lasting impact, “Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz senator and chairman of the Senate Defense Committee, told the Asia Times.
He said both sides will have to work hard to manage a more stable relationship based on cooperation in areas of common interest such as regional peace, connection, counter-terrorism, Afghanistan, climate change and military ties.
“Above all, since the Biden administration talks so much about democracy, Pakistan remains a vibrant democracy, probably the freest Muslim democracy, with self-contained civic activism,” he added.
As for China, Mushahid noted that on his first day in office, Prime Minister Sharif declared that “China is Pakistan’s strongest friend and closest partner” and that the CPEC will be taken to new heights with “Pakistani speed.” He predicted that relations between Pakistan and China would be “robust and resilient” under Sharif.
Pakistan’s foreign policy has traditionally been influenced and even governed by the autonomous military establishment, which is known to be particularly wary of ties with India, the United States, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia. Most of these countries maintain diplomatic relations with Islamabad for security reasons.
“Take, for example, the United States, which is more committed to the Pakistani army than the civilian government,” an Islamabad-based strategic affairs analyst, who preferred to remain anonymous, told the Asia Times.
“This is what happened at a Pentagon spokesman John Kirby’s press briefing in Washington on Tuesday (April 12). The Pentagon stated in absolute clarity that the United States has a ‘healthy military-to-military relationship’ with Pakistan’s armed forces and that it expects these relations to continue for the common interests of security and stability in the region, the analyst said.
Sharif’s opponents, including Khan’s loyalists, are adamant about the US conspiracy theory, which is based on a statement that US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu has allegedly delivered to Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, saying there would be “consequences” if Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) were not voted out of power.
These critics claim that the United States has lit a new fuse of anti-Americanism in Pakistan, seen in recent street demonstrations filled with American flags that will come to define a whole new form of anti-American nationalism in Pakistan. They can be expected to portray Sharif as an American-installed puppet in the coming weeks and months.
PTI senator and steel magnate Nauman Wazir told the Asia Times that the Sharif government will be short-lived and that new elections are likely to be held this year. “Instead of promising [close ties with] EU and US, the new government should follow a regional approach and adapt to Russia, China, Iran, Malaysia and India, ”he added.
Significantly, Khan’s anti-American rhetoric has not fallen on deaf ears to the powerful army that previously supported his administration, but backed down in recent months over disagreements over top military-related appointments.
On Thursday (April 14), the Pakistani army shredded Khan’s anti-American conspiracy theory and called on the PTI leadership to refrain from slandering the army and creating a rift between the armed forces and civilians.
Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Major General Babar Iftikhar said during a press conference at headquarters that the United States has not sought military bases in Pakistan, and disputes Khan’s claims that he said “absolutely not” to a US request for such access.
At the same time, Sharif will be faced with massive economic challenges, including a deteriorating trade balance, a huge budget deficit and runaway inflation. Rapidly depleted foreign exchange reserves and rising debt burdens are also areas of concern.
“The economic challenges are enormous, and it is not easy for the government to solve these challenges. The double-digit inflation and the resumption of rescue arrangements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are some of the many issues that will haunt the government, “Jan Achakzai, former adviser to Pakistan’s Balochistan provincial government, told the Asia Times.
Nauman said the new government is likely to raise the price of gasoline, gas and electricity soon in line with the falling rupee.
“Even if foreign investors wanted to boost the stock market, the government would have to raise more multilateral and bilateral loans to keep the wheel moving. This would result in short-term growth and transient gains, but push the country’s economic dependence on foreign loans,” he argued. .
Government lawmakers say Sharif is the man for the job of turning the economy around given his reputation as a skilled and efficient administrator. Analysts said his success will depend on whether he can avoid the old policy of revenge, vendetta and sacrifice, and instead focus on repairing the economy.
Senator Mushahid said Sharif’s biggest challenge would be to dismantle the “subsidy culture” of powerful self-interests that have traditionally influenced politics in Islamabad. He said that would be the key to keeping Sharif’s broad coalition intact.
“This is a unique representative ‘rainbow coalition’ of all political shades, from liberals to the religious right to regional nationalists, representing the 68% of Pakistanis who did not vote for PTI or voted against PTI in the 2018 election,” he said. .
“It wants to demonstrate that its performance is better and different from its predecessor,” Mushahid added.
Follow FM Shakil on Twitter at @ faq1955