Hurricane center increases chances for 2 systems, 2 others decrease

The Atlantic has two weather systems Tuesday morning with the potential to become the next tropical depression or storm of the season, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The first is a broad and elongated area of ​​low pressure that lies several hundred kilometers east of the Lesser Antilles. It produces a wide area of ​​disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the 8 a.m. tropical forecast.

“While environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, gradual development of this system is expected in the coming days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week,” senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown said.

The system is expected to move west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph in an area adjacent to the northern Leeward Islands. NASA officials noted the potential path to reckon with the tropical threat now that the Artemis I rocket missed its Monday chance to launch from Kennedy Space Center. The next flight options are during the windows on Friday, September 2 and Monday, September 5.

The NHC gives this system a 50% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next five days.

The second system is a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa that surfaced Tuesday morning, accompanied by a broad area of ​​low-pressure forecasts that will move west to west-northwest over the next few days.

“The system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the Atlantic waters in the Far East in the coming days,” Brown said. “By the end of this week, the disturbance is expected to pass over cooler waters and further development is not likely beyond that time.”

Regardless, the system could cause heavy rain in parts of the Cape Verde islands by Wednesday.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance of formation in the next two days and a 40% chance in the next five.

If one of the systems formed into a tropical storm named it would become Tropical Storm Danielle. After that, the hurricane season names are Earl, Fiona and Gaston.

The 2022 hurricane season has had only three named storms and none since early July. It is possible that the season could run through the entire month of August without a named system. Despite the recent lull in the tropics, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is still forecasting an above-average year with 14 to 21 named storms as of a forecast in early August.

The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while the 2021 season was the third most active season with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the traditional peak of hurricane season from mid-August to mid-October.

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