After yet another system failed to organize into a tropical depression or storm in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center is looking at a new system with the potential to develop in the Atlantic.
As per the NHC’s tropical outlook at 2 p.m., a tropical wave just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is causing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west into the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
“Environmental conditions may support slow development of this system as it moves west to west-northwest at about 25 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean over the next few days,” the outlook said.
The NHC gives the system a 20% chance of forming a depression or the next tropical storm in the next five days.
The season has been largely silent in seven weeks without a system by name. The NHC had tracked potential tropical cyclone four with a chance it could have turned into Tropical Storm Danielle when it made its way to the coast near South Texas on Saturday, but that system moved inland without reaching full tropical features.
The system did bring some rain as it moved inland south of the US-Texas border, but what NHC forecasters warned could become a tropical storm eventually disintegrated when it made landfall.
“What happened to PTC4? There are multiple factors that are causing the outages to melt,” said a statement from the National Weather Service. “According to NHC, the main reason was too much northerly shear. That means the wind was too strong for PTC4 to overcome and it eventually faded and eventually didn’t get stronger as planned.
The 2022 hurricane season runs from June to November. 30, but has seen only three tropical storms so far. Despite the low numbers so far, more potential systems are likely to form during what is now known as the peak of the hurricane season which runs from mid-August to mid-October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently reiterated that it expects this season to continue to be an above-average hurricane season, with 14 to 21 named storms. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
This follows the record of 30 named storms by 2020 and the third largest ever with 21 systems in 2021.