COVID-19 admissions in Oregon could rise to about 300 in the spring due to a particularly infectious coronavirus subvariant and the state’s decision to lift the mask requirements predicted a new Oregon Health & Science University forecast Friday.
The expected bump in hospital admissions is minimal compared to the peaks reached during the delta and omicron waves. About half of those in the hospital would be there to receive treatment for another condition, but would, according to the university’s estimates, test positive for COVID-19. Hospital admissions would then fall around mid-June, according to the forecast.
Cases and hospitalizations have fallen sharply since the omicron rise peaked in January. Daily average cases are now as low as they were before the delta wave. Hospital admissions on Friday were down to 157 occupied beds, 86% lower than the omicron peak.
Prognosis for the unpredictable coronavirus has sometimes been challenging throughout the pandemic underestimate the probability of increases until they are in full swing and other times project serious situations that do not come true.
Experts have previously said that the BA.2 omicron subvariant is unlikely to lead to a greater increase in cases given existing levels of immunity. But officials have said they expect some increase in sub-variant cases, which is estimated to be about 50% to 60% more contagious than the original omicron.
– Fedor Zarkhin