Ukraine fight will weaken both US and Russia, China is the winner | World news
Ukraine fight will weaken both US and Russia, China is the winner |  World news

Ukraine fight will weaken both US and Russia, China is the winner | World news

On February 27, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, while discussing the Ukraine situation with his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock over the phone, lectured her on why Russia’s security concerns should be addressed in the context of NATO’s five consecutive rounds of expansion to the east.

A close confidante of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Wang said that the Cold War was long gone and that it was therefore important for NATO to reconsider its positioning and responsibilities. He bluntly told the German minister that China was not in favor of sanctions against Russia as it would lead to a loss-loss situation.

Also read | Russia underestimated Ukraine’s opposition: the United States

The changing events of February 24, the day Russia invaded Ukraine, have ensured that the Cold War is back in Europe with the US-led NATO at the helm of the attack on Moscow and its allies. The security situation in Europe is further complicated, as the Russian proxy Belarus amends its constitution by removing the word neutrality and allowing the placement of Russian nuclear weapons (read tactical nuclear weapons) on the country’s soil. With US-NATO staring at Russia in the near future, China will get a free pass in the Indo-Pacific, perhaps even allowing its PLA to indulge in some adventurousness regarding Taiwan.

The scenario where China joins hands with Russia to tackle the US-led NATO will again benefit the former; it will put India in a tight position due to its military hardware relationship with Moscow. An alliance between Russia and China will hit Indian security, as 60% of India’s supply and spare parts of existing military hardware still come from Moscow. Given that previous Indian governments were more interested in buying military equipment from abroad and less in native development, India will take a long time to decouple this buyer-seller relationship with Russia. The number of arms purchase scandals in the past clearly shows why buying weapons in foreign currency was a preferred option. To increase Indian concerns, Pakistan was able to join the alliance between Russia and China.

Another scenario that appears plausible, and which in turn will benefit China, is a further weakening of US President Joe Biden after the November 2022 congressional election. in the Senate, the Biden administration will not be able to push any legislation and become further toothless. Russia, on the other hand, will weaken after economic sanctions begin to bite in the coming months, prompting criticism of the Putin regime. With both the United States and Russia suffering, China will be in pole position to become the world’s undisputed superpower. Russia may even be forced to sell its gas and oil to energy-hungry Beijing on the latter’s terms for its own economic survival.

Also read | Indian student killed in Ukraine’s grocery queue

The only scenario where China could be in danger is if there is a regime change in Russia, where Putin is replaced by a pro-Western president. As economic sanctions take years to bite, the only way it will happen is if Putin is humiliated in the Ukraine war at the hands of Volodymyr Zelensky and his group of brothers. Given the firepower that Putin has at his disposal, the scenario of the Russian army being defeated by the Ukrainian army (even with Europe’s backing) is rather bleak at the moment.

The above scenarios make it very clear that Russia’s Ukraine war will only help China’s rise to an unsurpassed superpower, with Washington and Moscow fighting each other.

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