US ropes in Quad allies to fight ‘two-front wars’ with China and Russia despite used force
US ropes in Quad allies to fight ‘two-front wars’ with China and Russia despite used force

US ropes in Quad allies to fight ‘two-front wars’ with China and Russia despite used force

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (center) speaks to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left), Australian Secretary of State Marise Payne (2nd from left), Indian Secretary of State Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (2nd from right) and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi ( right) before a Quad meeting in Melbourne on 11 February 2022. Photo: AFP

The sign is clearer than ever that the United States is turning the Quad into a tool to serve its own strategic goal of facing China and Russia simultaneously, observers said as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought the topic of the Ukraine crisis to Friday’s Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting. although this group of USA, Australia, Japan and India was formed for “Indo-Pacific” affairs and to target China.

Blinken said the United States should stand up with its allies for a rule-based system threatened by “Chinese aggression”, and the world’s response to the Ukraine crisis was monitored by “others”, which Bloomberg said was a sharp reference to China’s “expansion”. in Asia. Blinken also warned that Russia is gathering more troops and that an invasion of Ukraine could come “at any time”, even though the Kremlin had denied such an intention and called on NATO to take control.

Chinese experts believe Washington is trying to declare that it is determined to fight and can win on two fronts – China and Russia – at the same time to emphasize the hegemonic status of the United States and do its best to mobilize so many allies and partners as possible to serve this strategic goal amid fears of unprecedented relations between China and Russia.

But they pointed out that the Biden administration has seriously misjudged itself and the international situation because the United States today, deeply divided and plagued by domestic problems, has neither the ability to accommodate two great powers simultaneously, nor the leadership to maintain the confidence of allies.

Drowning man

On Thursday, US President Joe Biden urged Americans in Ukraine to leave immediately, warning that “things could go crazy quickly” in an interview with NBC. The statements were interpreted by Chinese observers as yet another hype about a “Russian invasion” threat to persuade its allies to join actions against Russia.

The US plan worked to a very limited extent when Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said it “shared serious concerns” over Russian military build-up during its meeting with Blinken. Australian Foreign Secretary Marise Payne also said that “Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s border has deeply concerned Australia and our allies and partners” despite the fact that Australia, very isolated in the South Pacific, has little contact with Russia and no interest in question. .

Chen Hong, professor and director of the Australian Studies Center at East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Friday that the US is eager to combine all its tools and mobilize US-led platforms to tackle the Ukraine crisis and China’s progress at . once.

Lü Xiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Friday that the United States was more like a drowning man grabbing a straw. But the more the United States wants to leave its own people and the world with the impression that it can handle confrontations with China and Russia and maintain a US-led world order, the more embarrassing a situation it is because its failures in domestic governance, in the democratic system in overseas operations such as the Afghan withdrawal is obvious to all.

Chen also said that the mix of the Ukraine crisis and the Indo-Pacific Strategy revealed US concerns about China-Russia relations “without a border”, which were further consolidated through a joint statement signed after the two top executives’ face-to-face meeting on February 4 ahead of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics.

Yury Tavrovsky, head of the “Russian Dream-Chinese Dream” analytical center at the Izborsk Club, told the Global Times on Friday that the United States under Trump overestimated its potential to wage two “cold wars” simultaneously, adding the “China Front” to it in advance acting “Russia front.”

Now Biden wants to rope in all liberal capitalist countries to support the declining power of the United States, and Quad, AUKUS and the so-called summit for democracy are the manifestations. This way further divides the world and accelerates the China-Russia partnership, the expert said.

Sergey Biryukov, a professor at the Siberian Institute of Management in Novosibirsk, Russia, told the Global Times that as a result of their developing partnership, China and Russia have been given opportunities to limit the militarization of the region through the structures of Quad and AUKUS.

Wills and realities

The United States wanted to highlight the “China threat” in the Indo-Pacific and the “Russia threat” in Europe, but lacked a clear idea of ​​how much its allies would buy into it, experts said.

Quad in itself is not a suitable mechanism and can hardly yield any concrete results, not to mention Quad members are cautious about making Russia their target, Lü said.

Japan will not take it as a priority despite territorial disputes with Russia, nor will India see Russia as a target. The United States can get nothing but verbal support for the Ukraine issue at the Quad table, experts said.

While India may have the motivation to create problems for China via Quad, it has more to worry about internal affairs, including the epidemic, supply chains and commercial technologies, experts said.

The United States can woo Japan to create problems for China, as the two East Asian neighbors have some difficulties in bilateral relations. But Japan will not fully function as an American tool, and it has maintained dialogue channels with China to deal with problems and deal with conflicts.

Australia seems to be the only loyal US follower in the bloc, betting everything on worsening relations between China and the US as a desperate gambler and even considering expanding their goals to Russia, but the US will not appreciate Australia’s victims or compensate for the losses, when the United States has a policy adjustment, experts said.

Lithuania, a non-Quad country, sent its Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis to Australia to seek more support for its position amid quarrels with China. The country also has intense ties with Russia. Experts said the Baltic nation is so closely tied to the American boat by some politicians that it has little flexibility to do what is beneficial to its people.

Lü said the United States is setting fire everywhere to demonstrate its competence and attraction to allies, and is using the tools at its disposal to win the “two-front battle,” but has forgotten that it no longer has the leadership to ask others for to extinguish fire.

Allies need to think twice before making real commitments beyond rhetorical support to the United States given the uncertainty in U.S. domestic policy, namely the midterm elections and the 2024 presidential election, experts said.

The latest F35 crashes and nuclear submarine The collision in the South China Sea reminded the public how much the United States can achieve in the midst of its ambitious Indo-Pacific strategy, Lü said.

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