When will the Social Security COLA increase for 2023 be announced and how much could it be?

Every year, usually in October, the Social Security Administration announces the cost of living (COLA) increase for the following year. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2022 being released on October 13, the COLA should be announced around the same time.

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For example, last year the SSA released the 2022 COLA on the same day the September CPI was announced. An SSA spokesperson confirmed with the website VerifyThis.com that the 2023 COLA will be announced in October.

According to the SSA website, COLA increases are based on the CPI for urban wage earners and white-collar workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter of the previous year. COLA increases are rounded to the nearest one-tenth of 1%. The July CPI was 9.1%, the first of three months to determine the COLA for 2023.

With this in mind, experts speculate that COLA could reach as much as 10% by 2023. That would be the biggest increase since 1981, when COLA reached 11.2%, AARP.org wrote.

Richard Johnson, director of the retirement policy program at the Washington, DC-based Urban Institute, told AARP, “I think somewhere in the 9% range is probably a reasonable bet.” He added that energy prices could be the wildcard in the CPI. Pump fuel prices have fallen over the past month, so that could help lower the CPI.

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A 9% increase could increase Social Security checks for seniors by about $150 per month.

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